Minority Report

Kodiak, AK — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Kodiak Island Borough.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 37°   Low 33°   Rain 94%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 27 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 73% against a group average of 94%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°32°99%
US model (GFS)36°32°100%
European model (ECMWF)35°32°99%
German model (ICON)38°33°73%
Canadian model (GEM)37°34°100%
The average37°33°94%

Friday, November 13

High 38°   Low 33°   Rain 93%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 82% against a group average of 93%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service37°28°100%
US model (GFS)38°32°100%
European model (ECMWF)37°34°100%
German model (ICON)36°34°85%
Canadian model (GEM)40°35°82%
The average38°33°93%

Saturday, November 14

High 36°   Low 29°   Rain 66%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 42 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 90% against a group average of 66%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service37°29°67%
US model (GFS)36°24°90%
European model (ECMWF)35°27°59%
German model (ICON)37°34°65%
Canadian model (GEM)35°30°48%
The average36°29°66%

Sunday, November 15

High 33°   Low 26°   Rain 21%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 34 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 38% against a group average of 21%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service37°31°38%
US model (GFS)33°22°38%
European model (ECMWF)29°24°4%
German model (ICON)35°30°10%
Canadian model (GEM)33°25°14%
The average33°26°21%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.