Minority Report

Kountze, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Hardin County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 77°   Low 54°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—49°0%
US model (GFS)76°55°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°56°0%
German model (ICON)78°56°0%
Canadian model (GEM)78°55°0%
The average77°54°0%

Friday, November 13

High 73°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service74°46°0%
US model (GFS)72°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)72°52°0%
German model (ICON)71°50°0%
Canadian model (GEM)76°51°0%
The average73°50°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 65°   Low 46°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 20% against a group average of 6%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°48°4%
US model (GFS)65°44°1%
European model (ECMWF)65°48°20%
German model (ICON)61°43°6%
Canadian model (GEM)66°50°0%
The average65°46°6%

Sunday, November 15

High 64°   Low 49°   Rain 78%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 14°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 95% against a group average of 78%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service67°48°77%
US model (GFS)70°50°63%
European model (ECMWF)59°49°95%
German model (ICON)56°49°77%
Canadian model (GEM)70°50°79%
The average64°49°78%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.