Minority Report

La Plata, MD — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Charles County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 65°   Low 47°   Rain 49%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 77 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 5% against a group average of 49%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—43°5%
US model (GFS)66°46°32%
European model (ECMWF)65°49°82%
German model (ICON)64°49°68%
Canadian model (GEM)66°48°57%
The average65°47°49%

Friday, November 13

High 48°   Low 37°   Rain 15%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 19 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 3% against a group average of 15%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°33°11%
US model (GFS)47°34°3%
European model (ECMWF)49°41°22%
German model (ICON)49°37°20%
Canadian model (GEM)49°38°19%
The average48°37°15%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 34°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 16 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 17% against a group average of 7%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°32°3%
US model (GFS)50°30°2%
European model (ECMWF)48°37°1%
German model (ICON)50°34°10%
Canadian model (GEM)50°34°17%
The average50°34°7%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°32°0%
US model (GFS)51°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°41°0%
German model (ICON)53°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°40°0%
The average52°37°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.