Minority Report

Lacon, IL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Marshall County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 44°   Low 34°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 49 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 52% against a group average of 17%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°6%
US model (GFS)43°33°4%
European model (ECMWF)46°37°20%
German model (ICON)45°35°3%
Canadian model (GEM)44°36°52%
The average44°34°17%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 30°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 7 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°25°7%
US model (GFS)41°31°1%
European model (ECMWF)43°32°0%
German model (ICON)44°32°3%
Canadian model (GEM)43°31°0%
The average43°30°2%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°27°0%
US model (GFS)45°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°29°0%
German model (ICON)46°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)44°22°0%
The average45°28°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°28°0%
US model (GFS)49°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°30°0%
German model (ICON)48°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°16°0%
The average48°27°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.