Minority Report

Lake City, CO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Hinsdale County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 56°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—26°0%
US model (GFS)58°31°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°27°0%
German model (ICON)56°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)56°29°0%
The average56°30°0%

Friday, November 13

High 51°   Low 30°   Rain 24%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 78 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 81% against a group average of 24%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°28°81%
US model (GFS)53°33°7%
European model (ECMWF)48°28°12%
German model (ICON)49°35°3%
Canadian model (GEM)51°24°19%
The average51°30°24%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 27°   Rain 95%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 80% against a group average of 95%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°23°98%
US model (GFS)41°23°80%
European model (ECMWF)43°31°100%
German model (ICON)41°34°97%
Canadian model (GEM)41°25°100%
The average42°27°95%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 24°   Rain 9%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 26% against a group average of 9%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°23°0%
US model (GFS)44°23°4%
European model (ECMWF)49°23°6%
German model (ICON)45°31°7%
Canadian model (GEM)50°21°26%
The average48°24°9%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.