Minority Report

Lakeport, CA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lake County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 70°   Low 47°   Rain 38%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 95 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 38%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—48°100%
US model (GFS)72°45°6%
European model (ECMWF)69°46°20%
German model (ICON)69°47°5%
Canadian model (GEM)72°48°58%
The average70°47°38%

Friday, November 13

High 55°   Low 46°   Rain 100%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°42°100%
US model (GFS)53°45°99%
European model (ECMWF)55°44°100%
German model (ICON)56°48°100%
Canadian model (GEM)55°49°100%
The average55°46°100%

Saturday, November 14

High 58°   Low 43°   Rain 37%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 79 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 84% against a group average of 37%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°41°84%
US model (GFS)56°43°37%
European model (ECMWF)59°44°9%
German model (ICON)59°43°5%
Canadian model (GEM)58°45°48%
The average58°43°37%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 45°   Rain 98%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°40°99%
US model (GFS)51°47°96%
European model (ECMWF)55°44°96%
German model (ICON)54°46°100%
Canadian model (GEM)55°48°100%
The average54°45°98%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.