Minority Report

Lakin, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Kearny County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 69°   Low 39°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°0%
US model (GFS)70°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)68°41°0%
German model (ICON)69°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)71°38°0%
The average69°39°0%

Friday, November 13

High 56°   Low 36°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service58°36°5%
US model (GFS)56°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)56°37°0%
German model (ICON)52°37°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°33°0%
The average56°36°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 37°   Rain 90%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 16 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°36°93%
US model (GFS)52°32°85%
European model (ECMWF)48°39°96%
German model (ICON)49°37°80%
Canadian model (GEM)45°39°95%
The average49°37°90%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 39°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 83 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 15% against a group average of 74%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°34°15%
US model (GFS)43°41°85%
European model (ECMWF)47°40°98%
German model (ICON)43°40°78%
Canadian model (GEM)43°38°95%
The average45°39°74%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.