Minority Report

Lancaster, NH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Coos County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 41°   Low 30°   Rain 26%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 42 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 57% against a group average of 26%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—23°20%
US model (GFS)42°33°15%
European model (ECMWF)42°32°57%
German model (ICON)41°33°20%
Canadian model (GEM)41°29°19%
The average41°30°26%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 28°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°22°10%
US model (GFS)39°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)40°27°0%
German model (ICON)39°31°15%
Canadian model (GEM)40°27°6%
The average40°28°7%

Saturday, November 14

High 39°   Low 30°   Rain 49%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 46 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 75% against a group average of 49%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°23°40%
US model (GFS)38°30°29%
European model (ECMWF)39°32°75%
German model (ICON)38°33°45%
Canadian model (GEM)39°32°58%
The average39°30°49%

Sunday, November 15

High 38°   Low 30°   Rain 38%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 34 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 56% against a group average of 38%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°23°38%
US model (GFS)37°30°29%
European model (ECMWF)38°33°22%
German model (ICON)37°34°45%
Canadian model (GEM)39°32°56%
The average38°30°38%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.