Minority Report

Laporte, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Sullivan County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 32°   Rain 100%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—30°100%
US model (GFS)47°33°100%
European model (ECMWF)45°32°100%
German model (ICON)48°33°100%
Canadian model (GEM)52°34°100%
The average48°32°100%

Friday, November 13

High 33°   Low 29°   Rain 95%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 85% against a group average of 95%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service35°28°85%
US model (GFS)33°28°92%
European model (ECMWF)32°29°100%
German model (ICON)33°30°100%
Canadian model (GEM)34°30°100%
The average33°29°95%

Saturday, November 14

High 36°   Low 29°   Rain 19%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 39 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 46% against a group average of 19%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service38°29°10%
US model (GFS)34°28°7%
European model (ECMWF)37°28°10%
German model (ICON)37°30°20%
Canadian model (GEM)36°30°46%
The average36°29°19%

Sunday, November 15

High 37°   Low 30°   Rain 14%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 14%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°29°10%
US model (GFS)36°28°16%
European model (ECMWF)36°32°24%
German model (ICON)38°32°6%
Canadian model (GEM)37°31°14%
The average37°30°14%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.