Minority Report

Lares Municipio, PR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lares Municipio.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 87°   Low 70°   Rain 35%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 83 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 83% against a group average of 35%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—73°0%
US model (GFS)88°69°19%
European model (ECMWF)85°70°83%
German model (ICON)85°67°40%
Canadian model (GEM)89°69°35%
The average87°70°35%

Friday, November 13

High 86°   Low 73°   Rain 17%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 35% against a group average of 17%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service84°72°20%
US model (GFS)86°70°19%
European model (ECMWF)84°73°35%
German model (ICON)86°76°3%
Canadian model (GEM)89°72°6%
The average86°73°17%

Saturday, November 14

High 86°   Low 73°   Rain 33%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 72 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 75% against a group average of 33%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service85°72°30%
US model (GFS)86°72°26%
European model (ECMWF)82°74°75%
German model (ICON)85°76°3%
Canadian model (GEM)91°72°32%
The average86°73°33%

Sunday, November 15

High 87°   Low 70°   Rain 16%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 26 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 3% against a group average of 16%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service84°69°29%
US model (GFS)88°70°3%
European model (ECMWF)86°73°25%
German model (ICON)86°70°20%
Canadian model (GEM)92°68°5%
The average87°70°16%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.