Minority Report

Larned, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Pawnee County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 60°   Low 35°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—31°0%
US model (GFS)62°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)59°37°0%
German model (ICON)60°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)61°34°0%
The average60°35°0%

Friday, November 13

High 52°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°32°1%
US model (GFS)52°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°34°0%
German model (ICON)52°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°29°0%
The average52°31°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 33°   Rain 49%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 40 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 49%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°36°64%
US model (GFS)50°31°25%
European model (ECMWF)47°35°56%
German model (ICON)51°32°35%
Canadian model (GEM)50°31°65%
The average49°33°49%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 38°   Rain 71%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 45% against a group average of 71%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°33°45%
US model (GFS)44°40°72%
European model (ECMWF)48°39°82%
German model (ICON)44°40°65%
Canadian model (GEM)43°38°90%
The average45°38°71%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.