Minority Report

Las Cruces, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Doña Ana County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 72°   Low 43°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—47°0%
US model (GFS)72°42°0%
European model (ECMWF)72°46°0%
German model (ICON)72°42°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°36°0%
The average72°43°0%

Friday, November 13

High 68°   Low 44°   Rain 63%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 32 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 80% against a group average of 63%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service69°47°65%
US model (GFS)66°46°48%
European model (ECMWF)70°52°80%
German model (ICON)68°42°73%
Canadian model (GEM)68°34°48%
The average68°44°63%

Saturday, November 14

High 65°   Low 46°   Rain 32%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 59 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 2% against a group average of 32%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°46°2%
US model (GFS)64°47°28%
European model (ECMWF)66°46°61%
German model (ICON)65°50°20%
Canadian model (GEM)65°43°47%
The average65°46°32%

Sunday, November 15

High 65°   Low 42°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°42°0%
US model (GFS)64°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)65°43°0%
German model (ICON)64°43°0%
Canadian model (GEM)65°33°0%
The average65°42°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.