Minority Report

Lawrence, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Douglas County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 50°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—25°0%
US model (GFS)50°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°37°0%
German model (ICON)50°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°30°0%
The average50°32°0%

Friday, November 13

High 45°   Low 26°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°24°0%
US model (GFS)42°26°0%
European model (ECMWF)45°32°0%
German model (ICON)46°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°21°0%
The average45°26°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 48°   Low 25°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°32°1%
US model (GFS)48°25°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°29°0%
German model (ICON)49°24°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°14°0%
The average48°25°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 30°   Rain 4%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°30°3%
US model (GFS)53°34°3%
European model (ECMWF)51°31°0%
German model (ICON)53°29°8%
Canadian model (GEM)51°24°6%
The average52°30°4%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.