Minority Report

Leadville, CO — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lake County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 49°   Low 23°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—23°0%
US model (GFS)51°25°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°21°0%
German model (ICON)49°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°19°0%
The average49°23°0%

Friday, November 13

High 46°   Low 25°   Rain 6%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 31 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 31% against a group average of 6%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°22°31%
US model (GFS)48°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)44°24°0%
German model (ICON)46°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°21°0%
The average46°25°6%

Saturday, November 14

High 38°   Low 25°   Rain 82%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 95% against a group average of 82%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°22°87%
US model (GFS)37°25°76%
European model (ECMWF)36°24°77%
German model (ICON)37°30°73%
Canadian model (GEM)39°23°95%
The average38°25°82%

Sunday, November 15

High 41°   Low 22°   Rain 28%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 83 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 84% against a group average of 28%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°17°1%
US model (GFS)40°23°20%
European model (ECMWF)40°24°10%
German model (ICON)40°26°24%
Canadian model (GEM)42°19°84%
The average41°22°28%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.