Minority Report

Leakey, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Real County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 74°   Low 52°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—50°0%
US model (GFS)74°52°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°56°0%
German model (ICON)73°53°0%
Canadian model (GEM)74°51°0%
The average74°52°0%

Friday, November 13

High 72°   Low 52°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service72°51°6%
US model (GFS)69°55°1%
European model (ECMWF)75°54°0%
German model (ICON)72°52°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°47°0%
The average72°52°1%

Saturday, November 14

High 67°   Low 55°   Rain 65%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 11°, rain spread 46 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 42% against a group average of 65%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service65°56°58%
US model (GFS)64°54°42%
European model (ECMWF)69°53°88%
German model (ICON)64°56°58%
Canadian model (GEM)74°55°79%
The average67°55°65%

Sunday, November 15

High 72°   Low 55°   Rain 62%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 60 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 62%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service68°50°46%
US model (GFS)68°59°48%
European model (ECMWF)76°53°78%
German model (ICON)74°58°40%
Canadian model (GEM)75°57°100%
The average72°55°62%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.