Minority Report

Lebanon, IN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Boone County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 37°   Rain 53%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 48 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 81% against a group average of 53%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°45%
US model (GFS)46°36°33%
European model (ECMWF)50°40°52%
Canadian model (GEM)47°37°81%
The average48°37°53%

Friday, November 13

High 42°   Low 32°   Rain 31%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 27 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 16% against a group average of 31%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°30°27%
US model (GFS)41°32°16%
European model (ECMWF)44°34°43%
Canadian model (GEM)40°31°38%
The average42°32°31%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 29°   Rain 2%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 5 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°28°5%
US model (GFS)46°31°4%
European model (ECMWF)46°31°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°26°0%
The average45°29°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 48°   Low 28°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°29°0%
US model (GFS)48°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)47°22°0%
The average48°28°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.