Minority Report

Lebanon, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lebanon County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 43°   Rain 93%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 27 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 73% against a group average of 93%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—38°73%
US model (GFS)56°44°96%
European model (ECMWF)54°43°100%
German model (ICON)54°45°98%
Canadian model (GEM)55°43°100%
The average55°43°93%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 36°   Rain 83%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 43 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 55% against a group average of 83%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°32°79%
US model (GFS)44°35°55%
European model (ECMWF)43°36°98%
German model (ICON)45°38°88%
Canadian model (GEM)43°37°95%
The average44°36°83%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 16%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 41 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 41% against a group average of 16%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°32°0%
US model (GFS)44°32°5%
European model (ECMWF)46°35°13%
German model (ICON)46°34°20%
Canadian model (GEM)43°36°41%
The average45°34°16%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 35°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°31°0%
US model (GFS)45°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°37°2%
German model (ICON)48°38°3%
Canadian model (GEM)47°35°0%
The average47°35°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.