Minority Report

Lebanon, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Russell County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 53°   Low 39°   Rain 82%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 40 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 60% against a group average of 82%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°60%
US model (GFS)53°41°75%
German model (ICON)51°41°93%
Canadian model (GEM)53°40°100%
The average53°39°82%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 33°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 37 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 95% against a group average of 74%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°31°65%
US model (GFS)41°34°58%
German model (ICON)41°35°78%
Canadian model (GEM)40°34°95%
The average41°33°74%

Saturday, November 14

High 37°   Low 29°   Rain 38%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 65 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 78% against a group average of 38%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°31°13%
US model (GFS)36°26°17%
German model (ICON)38°32°45%
Canadian model (GEM)37°29°78%
The average37°29°38%

Sunday, November 15

High 43°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 2 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°29°0%
US model (GFS)42°25°0%
German model (ICON)46°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)42°27°2%
The average43°29°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.