Minority Report

Leitchfield, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Grayson County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 38°   Rain 36%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 53 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 63% against a group average of 36%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°10%
US model (GFS)55°37°30%
European model (ECMWF)55°39°63%
German model (ICON)55°39°58%
Canadian model (GEM)54°38°21%
The average55°38°36%

Friday, November 13

High 45°   Low 33°   Rain 15%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 22 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 28% against a group average of 15%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°30°24%
US model (GFS)43°34°6%
European model (ECMWF)46°35°28%
German model (ICON)45°33°13%
Canadian model (GEM)46°33°6%
The average45°33°15%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 29°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°25°0%
US model (GFS)49°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)48°31°0%
German model (ICON)50°31°3%
Canadian model (GEM)49°26°0%
The average49°29°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service52°27°0%
US model (GFS)52°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°31°0%
German model (ICON)54°32°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°20°0%
The average52°29°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.