Minority Report

Lewisburg, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Union County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 51°   Low 39°   Rain 95%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 19 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 81% against a group average of 95%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°81%
US model (GFS)50°40°92%
European model (ECMWF)53°38°100%
German model (ICON)50°41°100%
Canadian model (GEM)51°40°100%
The average51°39°95%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 35°   Rain 81%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 46 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 54% against a group average of 81%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°31°64%
US model (GFS)40°36°54%
European model (ECMWF)40°36°100%
German model (ICON)41°37°100%
Canadian model (GEM)41°36°87%
The average41°35°81%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 7%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 14 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°32°2%
US model (GFS)43°32°3%
European model (ECMWF)46°35°6%
German model (ICON)46°35°8%
Canadian model (GEM)43°34°16%
The average45°34°7%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 34°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°31°0%
US model (GFS)45°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°37°4%
German model (ICON)46°38°0%
Canadian model (GEM)45°32°0%
The average46°34°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.