Minority Report

Lewistown, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Mifflin County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 52°   Low 40°   Rain 81%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 46 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 54% against a group average of 81%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°54%
US model (GFS)51°41°60%
European model (ECMWF)53°42°96%
German model (ICON)51°42°95%
Canadian model (GEM)52°42°100%
The average52°40°81%

Friday, November 13

High 43°   Low 36°   Rain 65%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 69 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 23% against a group average of 65%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°31°42%
US model (GFS)41°37°23%
European model (ECMWF)43°37°92%
German model (ICON)43°37°88%
Canadian model (GEM)42°37°78%
The average43°36°65%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 34°   Rain 8%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°32°4%
US model (GFS)46°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)46°35°8%
German model (ICON)46°36°13%
Canadian model (GEM)44°35°15%
The average46°34°8%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 35°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°30°2%
US model (GFS)46°33°1%
European model (ECMWF)48°37°6%
German model (ICON)46°38°4%
Canadian model (GEM)46°36°6%
The average47°35°4%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.