Minority Report

Lewisville, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lafayette County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 73°   Low 48°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°1%
US model (GFS)74°48°0%
European model (ECMWF)73°52°0%
German model (ICON)72°50°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°50°0%
The average73°48°0%

Friday, November 13

High 59°   Low 41°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service60°37°1%
US model (GFS)59°43°1%
European model (ECMWF)59°44°0%
German model (ICON)58°41°0%
Canadian model (GEM)61°41°0%
The average59°41°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 58°   Low 37°   Rain 2%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°38°8%
US model (GFS)60°36°1%
European model (ECMWF)56°39°1%
German model (ICON)58°37°1%
Canadian model (GEM)56°38°0%
The average58°37°2%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 42°   Rain 67%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 31 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 48% against a group average of 67%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°39°61%
US model (GFS)57°42°48%
European model (ECMWF)50°43°79%
German model (ICON)47°43°69%
Canadian model (GEM)54°45°76%
The average52°42°67%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.