Minority Report

Lexington, TN — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Henderson County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 62°   Low 39°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 25 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 9%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—28°0%
US model (GFS)62°40°14%
European model (ECMWF)62°43°25%
German model (ICON)62°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)62°41°5%
The average62°39°9%

Friday, November 13

High 48°   Low 32°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°26°0%
US model (GFS)47°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°36°0%
German model (ICON)50°29°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°34°0%
The average48°32°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 52°   Low 29°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°26°0%
US model (GFS)51°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°33°0%
German model (ICON)53°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)52°29°0%
The average52°29°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°29°1%
US model (GFS)54°35°1%
European model (ECMWF)55°33°0%
German model (ICON)57°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°26°0%
The average55°31°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.