Minority Report

Liberty, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Casey County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 41°   Rain 79%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 75 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 79%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—36°25%
US model (GFS)54°42°72%
European model (ECMWF)55°42°100%
German model (ICON)56°43°98%
Canadian model (GEM)56°42°100%
The average55°41°79%

Friday, November 13

High 44°   Low 34°   Rain 65%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 51 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 65%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°29°68%
US model (GFS)43°33°48%
European model (ECMWF)44°37°96%
German model (ICON)44°35°45%
Canadian model (GEM)43°34°70%
The average44°34°65%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 29°   Rain 7%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 7%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°25°0%
US model (GFS)47°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)46°30°1%
German model (ICON)46°32°25%
Canadian model (GEM)46°27°5%
The average46°29°7%

Sunday, November 15

High 51°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°26°0%
US model (GFS)51°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)52°34°0%
German model (ICON)53°35°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°22°0%
The average51°30°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.