Minority Report

Liberty, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Liberty County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 54°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—49°0%
US model (GFS)79°57°0%
European model (ECMWF)78°57°0%
German model (ICON)77°56°0%
Canadian model (GEM)78°53°0%
The average78°54°0%

Friday, November 13

High 74°   Low 50°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service73°46°0%
US model (GFS)76°50°0%
European model (ECMWF)73°53°0%
German model (ICON)73°51°0%
Canadian model (GEM)77°48°0%
The average74°50°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 64°   Low 49°   Rain 11%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 20 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 11%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°48°18%
US model (GFS)65°48°2%
European model (ECMWF)65°50°20%
German model (ICON)62°46°17%
Canadian model (GEM)66°52°0%
The average64°49°11%

Sunday, November 15

High 66°   Low 52°   Rain 76%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 61% against a group average of 76%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°50°74%
US model (GFS)70°51°61%
European model (ECMWF)61°51°90%
German model (ICON)65°54°77%
Canadian model (GEM)71°51°78%
The average66°52°76%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.