Minority Report

Lihue, HI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Kauai County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 80°   Low 72°   Rain 74%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 89 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 11% against a group average of 74%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service82°72°11%
US model (GFS)79°72°100%
European model (ECMWF)79°70°100%
German model (ICON)79°74°68%
Canadian model (GEM)81°74°91%
The average80°72°74%

Friday, November 13

High 80°   Low 72°   Rain 45%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 75 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 93% against a group average of 45%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service82°72°22%
US model (GFS)79°71°65%
European model (ECMWF)77°69°93%
German model (ICON)80°74°18%
Canadian model (GEM)81°73°29%
The average80°72°45%

Saturday, November 14

High 79°   Low 72°   Rain 65%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 65 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 65%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service82°72°42%
US model (GFS)79°71°100%
European model (ECMWF)76°70°98%
German model (ICON)78°74°35%
Canadian model (GEM)79°72°48%
The average79°72°65%

Sunday, November 15

High 78°   Low 72°   Rain 64%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 71 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 64%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service82°72°29%
US model (GFS)77°71°100%
European model (ECMWF)76°70°98%
German model (ICON)78°74°43%
Canadian model (GEM)80°72°49%
The average78°72°64%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.