Minority Report

Lillington, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Harnett County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 71°   Low 46°   Rain 19%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 43 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 43% against a group average of 19%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—42°0%
US model (GFS)71°47°29%
European model (ECMWF)70°50°43%
German model (ICON)72°47°23%
Canadian model (GEM)72°46°0%
The average71°46°19%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 41°   Rain 11%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 11%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°36°12%
US model (GFS)57°42°8%
European model (ECMWF)57°44°29%
German model (ICON)58°42°5%
Canadian model (GEM)59°40°0%
The average58°41°11%

Saturday, November 14

High 54°   Low 35°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 21 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 21% against a group average of 5%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°33°0%
US model (GFS)54°35°2%
European model (ECMWF)53°40°21%
German model (ICON)54°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°36°0%
The average54°35°5%

Sunday, November 15

High 56°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°33°0%
US model (GFS)56°35°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°37°0%
German model (ICON)58°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°30°0%
The average56°33°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.