Minority Report

Lima, OH — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Allen County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 48°   Low 39°   Rain 91%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 29 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 71% against a group average of 91%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°71%
US model (GFS)48°41°83%
European model (ECMWF)50°42°100%
German model (ICON)48°40°100%
Canadian model (GEM)47°39°100%
The average48°39°91%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 32°   Rain 51%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 78 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 96% against a group average of 51%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°28°18%
US model (GFS)41°32°29%
European model (ECMWF)42°36°57%
German model (ICON)41°32°55%
Canadian model (GEM)41°32°96%
The average41°32°51%

Saturday, November 14

High 43°   Low 29°   Rain 5%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°35°10%
US model (GFS)42°31°2%
European model (ECMWF)43°28°4%
German model (ICON)44°27°3%
Canadian model (GEM)41°25°8%
The average43°29°5%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 33°   Rain 3%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°32°11%
US model (GFS)46°38°1%
European model (ECMWF)44°35°3%
German model (ICON)47°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)41°26°0%
The average45°33°3%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.