Minority Report

Live Oak, FL — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Suwannee County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 77°   Low 53°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 1°, rain spread 16 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 16% against a group average of 4%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—44°0%
US model (GFS)78°53°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°57°16%
German model (ICON)77°55°5%
Canadian model (GEM)77°56°0%
The average77°53°4%

Friday, November 13

High 66°   Low 44°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°38°0%
US model (GFS)67°45°0%
European model (ECMWF)67°48°0%
German model (ICON)66°42°0%
Canadian model (GEM)66°47°0%
The average66°44°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 59°   Low 38°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°37°0%
US model (GFS)60°37°0%
European model (ECMWF)59°40°0%
German model (ICON)60°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)59°39°0%
The average59°38°0%

Sunday, November 15

High 64°   Low 39°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°42°0%
US model (GFS)64°42°0%
European model (ECMWF)63°40°0%
German model (ICON)66°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)63°36°0%
The average64°39°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.