Minority Report

Livingston, MT — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Park County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 65°   Low 41°   Rain 0%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—37°0%
US model (GFS)68°45°0%
European model (ECMWF)62°36°0%
German model (ICON)65°42°0%
Canadian model (GEM)64°43°0%
The average65°41°0%

Friday, November 13

High 63°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service64°36°1%
US model (GFS)63°45°0%
European model (ECMWF)62°36°0%
German model (ICON)63°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)63°41°0%
The average63°40°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 59°   Low 37°   Rain 18%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 0°, rain spread 35 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 39% against a group average of 18%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°33°8%
US model (GFS)59°38°9%
European model (ECMWF)59°34°4%
German model (ICON)59°41°30%
Canadian model (GEM)59°38°39%
The average59°37°18%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 36°   Rain 6%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 25 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 25% against a group average of 6%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°33°0%
US model (GFS)54°36°2%
European model (ECMWF)55°36°0%
German model (ICON)57°37°2%
Canadian model (GEM)55°38°25%
The average55°36°6%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.