Minority Report

Livingston, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Polk County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 53°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—48°0%
US model (GFS)80°53°0%
European model (ECMWF)78°57°0%
German model (ICON)78°54°0%
Canadian model (GEM)77°54°0%
The average78°53°0%

Friday, November 13

High 74°   Low 49°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service74°45°0%
US model (GFS)75°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)72°54°0%
German model (ICON)72°51°0%
Canadian model (GEM)76°49°0%
The average74°49°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 65°   Low 47°   Rain 15%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 30 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 0% against a group average of 15%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°47°28%
US model (GFS)67°47°8%
European model (ECMWF)66°49°30%
German model (ICON)62°43°11%
Canadian model (GEM)66°51°0%
The average65°47°15%

Sunday, November 15

High 60°   Low 48°   Rain 78%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 12°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 63% against a group average of 78%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service63°48°76%
US model (GFS)65°48°63%
European model (ECMWF)54°48°92%
German model (ICON)53°48°76%
Canadian model (GEM)66°48°81%
The average60°48°78%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.