Minority Report

Lock Haven, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Clinton County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 50°   Low 38°   Rain 92%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 31 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 69% against a group average of 92%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°69%
US model (GFS)49°40°92%
European model (ECMWF)52°39°100%
German model (ICON)50°40°100%
Canadian model (GEM)51°41°100%
The average50°38°92%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 35°   Rain 69%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 60 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 36% against a group average of 69%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°31°48%
US model (GFS)40°34°36%
European model (ECMWF)41°37°96%
German model (ICON)40°36°90%
Canadian model (GEM)41°36°77%
The average41°35°69%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 33°   Rain 5%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 6 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°32°6%
US model (GFS)43°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)46°34°2%
German model (ICON)44°35°8%
Canadian model (GEM)43°33°6%
The average44°33°5%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 35°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°30°1%
US model (GFS)43°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)45°37°4%
German model (ICON)44°38°1%
Canadian model (GEM)45°36°6%
The average45°35°3%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.