Minority Report

Lockhart, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Caldwell County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 77°   Low 54°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—49°0%
US model (GFS)80°56°0%
European model (ECMWF)76°58°0%
German model (ICON)76°57°0%
Canadian model (GEM)77°52°0%
The average77°54°0%

Friday, November 13

High 78°   Low 51°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service77°49°0%
US model (GFS)79°51°0%
European model (ECMWF)77°55°0%
German model (ICON)77°52°0%
Canadian model (GEM)78°47°0%
The average78°51°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 70°   Low 52°   Rain 56%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 13°, rain spread 62 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 19% against a group average of 56%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service70°54°57%
US model (GFS)67°53°43%
European model (ECMWF)70°52°81%
German model (ICON)64°52°79%
Canadian model (GEM)78°46°19%
The average70°52°56%

Sunday, November 15

High 68°   Low 54°   Rain 80%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 12°, rain spread 37 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 56% against a group average of 80%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service68°50°81%
US model (GFS)76°57°56%
European model (ECMWF)64°53°93%
German model (ICON)63°54°85%
Canadian model (GEM)69°53°87%
The average68°54°80%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.