Minority Report

Lockport, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Niagara County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 45°   Low 36°   Rain 55%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 93 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 7% against a group average of 55%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°7%
US model (GFS)45°36°20%
European model (ECMWF)45°40°65%
German model (ICON)45°38°85%
Canadian model (GEM)46°35°100%
The average45°36°55%

Friday, November 13

High 40°   Low 35°   Rain 29%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 56 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 63% against a group average of 29%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°32°23%
US model (GFS)38°36°7%
European model (ECMWF)41°37°22%
German model (ICON)39°36°63%
Canadian model (GEM)38°35°29%
The average40°35°29%

Saturday, November 14

High 42°   Low 36°   Rain 56%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 49 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 28% against a group average of 56%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service43°34°37%
US model (GFS)42°36°28%
European model (ECMWF)43°38°64%
German model (ICON)42°36°77%
Canadian model (GEM)41°35°76%
The average42°36°56%

Sunday, November 15

High 42°   Low 37°   Rain 32%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 14% against a group average of 32%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°33°14%
US model (GFS)42°37°24%
European model (ECMWF)43°39°46%
German model (ICON)42°38°47%
Canadian model (GEM)40°36°28%
The average42°37°32%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.