Minority Report

Los Alamos, NM — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Los Alamos County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 58°   Low 38°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—38°0%
US model (GFS)60°39°0%
European model (ECMWF)57°36°0%
German model (ICON)59°36°0%
Canadian model (GEM)58°40°0%
The average58°38°0%

Friday, November 13

High 56°   Low 38°   Rain 43%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 46 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 69% against a group average of 43%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°37°69%
US model (GFS)58°37°23%
European model (ECMWF)55°36°55%
German model (ICON)56°39°30%
Canadian model (GEM)57°39°38%
The average56°38°43%

Saturday, November 14

High 46°   Low 34°   Rain 93%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 15 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°32°85%
US model (GFS)48°38°86%
European model (ECMWF)41°33°100%
German model (ICON)47°36°99%
Canadian model (GEM)49°32°97%
The average46°34°93%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 33°   Rain 4%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 18% against a group average of 4%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°32°0%
US model (GFS)49°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°31°2%
German model (ICON)51°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)49°32°18%
The average49°33°4%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.