Minority Report

Louisa, KY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Lawrence County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 55°   Low 43°   Rain 87%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 5°, rain spread 52 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 48% against a group average of 87%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—34°48%
US model (GFS)54°44°86%
European model (ECMWF)54°44°100%
German model (ICON)54°44°100%
Canadian model (GEM)58°47°100%
The average55°43°87%

Friday, November 13

High 48°   Low 36°   Rain 63%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 45 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 87% against a group average of 63%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°29°42%
US model (GFS)47°37°46%
European model (ECMWF)49°38°87%
German model (ICON)46°37°63%
Canadian model (GEM)50°39°75%
The average48°36°63%

Saturday, November 14

High 47°   Low 33°   Rain 10%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°29°0%
US model (GFS)47°34°11%
European model (ECMWF)49°34°6%
German model (ICON)46°34°18%
Canadian model (GEM)46°35°14%
The average47°33°10%

Sunday, November 15

High 49°   Low 35°   Rain 1%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 4 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°28°0%
US model (GFS)48°41°0%
European model (ECMWF)48°36°4%
German model (ICON)50°36°3%
Canadian model (GEM)49°34°0%
The average49°35°1%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.