Minority Report

Louisburg, NC — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Franklin County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 70°   Low 46°   Rain 23%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 50 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 51% against a group average of 23%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—41°1%
US model (GFS)70°45°15%
European model (ECMWF)68°49°51%
German model (ICON)70°46°40%
Canadian model (GEM)71°46°10%
The average70°46°23%

Friday, November 13

High 58°   Low 40°   Rain 23%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 35 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 45% against a group average of 23%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service59°32°17%
US model (GFS)57°40°28%
European model (ECMWF)56°44°45%
German model (ICON)57°40°15%
Canadian model (GEM)59°43°10%
The average58°40°23%

Saturday, November 14

High 53°   Low 33°   Rain 9%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 31 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 31% against a group average of 9%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service55°31°0%
US model (GFS)53°32°2%
European model (ECMWF)52°37°31%
German model (ICON)53°30°3%
Canadian model (GEM)53°34°7%
The average53°33°9%

Sunday, November 15

High 55°   Low 33°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°31°0%
US model (GFS)55°34°0%
European model (ECMWF)55°36°0%
German model (ICON)58°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)54°32°0%
The average55°33°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.