Minority Report

Ludington, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Mason County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 45°   Low 35°   Rain 55%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 1°, rain spread 66 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 93% against a group average of 55%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°59%
US model (GFS)45°36°27%
European model (ECMWF)45°36°46%
German model (ICON)46°36°48%
Canadian model (GEM)46°36°93%
The average45°35°55%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 33°   Rain 48%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 82 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 48%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°35°61%
US model (GFS)40°32°41%
European model (ECMWF)42°31°22%
German model (ICON)42°32°18%
Canadian model (GEM)39°34°100%
The average41°33°48%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 36°   Rain 49%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 71 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 2% against a group average of 49%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°34°71%
US model (GFS)43°38°59%
European model (ECMWF)42°34°2%
German model (ICON)46°40°38%
Canadian model (GEM)45°37°73%
The average44°36°49%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 35°   Rain 9%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 12 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°34°11%
US model (GFS)45°37°9%
European model (ECMWF)46°32°2%
German model (ICON)46°37°10%
Canadian model (GEM)44°35°14%
The average45°35°9%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.