Minority Report

Luzerne County, PA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Luzerne County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 51°   Low 37°   Rain 99%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 3 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—32°97%
US model (GFS)48°38°100%
European model (ECMWF)49°38°100%
German model (ICON)52°39°100%
Canadian model (GEM)56°37°100%
The average51°37°99%

Friday, November 13

High 39°   Low 32°   Rain 95%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service42°28°88%
US model (GFS)38°32°87%
European model (ECMWF)38°33°100%
German model (ICON)39°33°100%
Canadian model (GEM)37°33°100%
The average39°32°95%

Saturday, November 14

High 41°   Low 32°   Rain 14%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 33 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 37% against a group average of 14%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service44°31°4%
US model (GFS)38°32°10%
European model (ECMWF)41°32°9%
German model (ICON)41°33°10%
Canadian model (GEM)39°33°37%
The average41°32°14%

Sunday, November 15

High 42°   Low 33°   Rain 9%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 11 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°30°8%
US model (GFS)39°29°15%
European model (ECMWF)42°36°10%
German model (ICON)42°36°4%
Canadian model (GEM)41°34°10%
The average42°33°9%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.