Minority Report

Lyons, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Rice County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 57°   Low 35°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—29°1%
US model (GFS)58°36°0%
European model (ECMWF)57°38°0%
German model (ICON)57°34°0%
Canadian model (GEM)57°37°0%
The average57°35°0%

Friday, November 13

High 50°   Low 30°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°29°1%
US model (GFS)49°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)50°34°0%
German model (ICON)51°26°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°28°0%
The average50°30°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 31°   Rain 23%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 6°, rain spread 18 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 13% against a group average of 23%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°34°31%
US model (GFS)46°30°13%
European model (ECMWF)48°34°31%
German model (ICON)52°29°15%
Canadian model (GEM)48°28°27%
The average49°31°23%

Sunday, November 15

High 46°   Low 37°   Rain 48%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 9°, rain spread 47 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 79% against a group average of 48%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service47°31°40%
US model (GFS)45°40°32%
European model (ECMWF)49°40°47%
German model (ICON)48°39°43%
Canadian model (GEM)40°37°79%
The average46°37°48%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.