Madison, WI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Dane County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
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High 44° Low 34° Rain 16%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 39 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 29° | 2% |
| US model (GFS) | 45° | 33° | 3% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 43° | 35° | 41% |
| German model (ICON) | 43° | 34° | 5% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 44° | 37° | 30% |
| The average | 44° | 34° | 16% |
High 41° Low 31° Rain 1%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 42° | 26° | 3% |
| US model (GFS) | 41° | 31° | 2% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 39° | 32° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 42° | 30° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 41° | 34° | 0% |
| The average | 41° | 31° | 1% |
High 44° Low 29° Rain 0%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 45° | 27° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 44° | 31° | 1% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 42° | 29° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 44° | 30° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 43° | 30° | 0% |
| The average | 44° | 29° | 0% |
High 46° Low 28° Rain 0%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 47° | 27° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 47° | 29° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 46° | 29° | 0% |
| German model (ICON) | 47° | 30° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 46° | 24° | 0% |
| The average | 46° | 28° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.