Minority Report

Madison, WV — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Boone County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 54°   Low 42°   Rain 90%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 35 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 65% against a group average of 90%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—35°65%
US model (GFS)53°44°84%
European model (ECMWF)54°44°100%
German model (ICON)55°44°100%
Canadian model (GEM)54°44°100%
The average54°42°90%

Friday, November 13

High 47°   Low 37°   Rain 69%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 53 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 42% against a group average of 69%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°31°49%
US model (GFS)46°39°42%
European model (ECMWF)48°38°95%
German model (ICON)45°38°73%
Canadian model (GEM)49°39°84%
The average47°37°69%

Saturday, November 14

High 45°   Low 34°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 48 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 57% against a group average of 25%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°31°9%
US model (GFS)45°36°17%
European model (ECMWF)47°35°57%
German model (ICON)44°35°15%
Canadian model (GEM)43°36°26%
The average45°34°25%

Sunday, November 15

High 47°   Low 35°   Rain 3%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 8 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°29°0%
US model (GFS)47°39°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°35°8%
German model (ICON)49°38°3%
Canadian model (GEM)45°33°5%
The average47°35°3%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.