Minority Report

Madisonville, TX — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Madison County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 78°   Low 52°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 1°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—47°0%
US model (GFS)79°53°0%
European model (ECMWF)78°56°0%
German model (ICON)78°54°0%
Canadian model (GEM)79°53°0%
The average78°52°0%

Friday, November 13

High 74°   Low 48°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service73°46°0%
US model (GFS)74°49°0%
European model (ECMWF)74°52°0%
German model (ICON)72°48°0%
Canadian model (GEM)76°45°0%
The average74°48°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 66°   Low 48°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 7°, rain spread 54 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 54% against a group average of 25%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service66°48°38%
US model (GFS)68°47°11%
European model (ECMWF)68°50°54%
German model (ICON)61°45°23%
Canadian model (GEM)68°50°0%
The average66°48°25%

Sunday, November 15

High 58°   Low 49°   Rain 83%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 11°, rain spread 28 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 66% against a group average of 83%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°47°82%
US model (GFS)63°48°66%
European model (ECMWF)55°50°94%
German model (ICON)52°48°84%
Canadian model (GEM)59°50°87%
The average58°49°83%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.