Minority Report

Madras, OR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Jefferson County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 68°   Low 41°   Rain 1%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 5 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—45°5%
US model (GFS)71°41°1%
European model (ECMWF)63°36°0%
German model (ICON)71°44°0%
Canadian model (GEM)68°36°0%
The average68°41°1%

Friday, November 13

High 61°   Low 41°   Rain 72%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 35 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 48% against a group average of 72%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°37°76%
US model (GFS)59°39°76%
European model (ECMWF)62°41°77%
German model (ICON)60°47°83%
Canadian model (GEM)63°41°48%
The average61°41°72%

Saturday, November 14

High 55°   Low 41°   Rain 25%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 6°, rain spread 61 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 66% against a group average of 25%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°39°66%
US model (GFS)52°38°20%
European model (ECMWF)55°41°10%
German model (ICON)55°46°24%
Canadian model (GEM)56°41°5%
The average55°41°25%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 39°   Rain 63%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 8°, rain spread 47 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 38% against a group average of 63%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service53°33°68%
US model (GFS)54°43°61%
European model (ECMWF)50°38°63%
German model (ICON)53°40°85%
Canadian model (GEM)58°41°38%
The average54°39°63%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.