Minority Report

Magnolia, AR — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Columbia County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 73°   Low 47°   Rain 0%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 1 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—40°1%
US model (GFS)74°45°0%
European model (ECMWF)73°52°0%
German model (ICON)72°48°0%
Canadian model (GEM)73°51°0%
The average73°47°0%

Friday, November 13

High 59°   Low 40°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 1 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service61°36°1%
US model (GFS)59°43°1%
European model (ECMWF)58°42°0%
German model (ICON)58°39°0%
Canadian model (GEM)60°40°0%
The average59°40°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 57°   Low 36°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 5 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service57°37°5%
US model (GFS)60°36°1%
European model (ECMWF)56°38°0%
German model (ICON)58°33°0%
Canadian model (GEM)56°37°0%
The average57°36°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 54°   Low 42°   Rain 58%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 10°, rain spread 37 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 80% against a group average of 58%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service56°38°55%
US model (GFS)60°42°44%
European model (ECMWF)51°42°80%
German model (ICON)50°42°69%
Canadian model (GEM)55°44°43%
The average54°42°58%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.