Minority Report

Malone, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Franklin County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 42°   Low 29°   Rain 14%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 34 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 40% against a group average of 14%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—26°9%
US model (GFS)42°31°6%
European model (ECMWF)43°31°40%
German model (ICON)41°32°10%
Canadian model (GEM)41°26°7%
The average42°29°14%

Friday, November 13

High 37°   Low 28°   Rain 10%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 39 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the National Weather Service stands apart, rain 39% against a group average of 10%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°26°39%
US model (GFS)36°29°3%
European model (ECMWF)37°29°2%
German model (ICON)37°29°8%
Canadian model (GEM)35°24°0%
The average37°28°10%

Saturday, November 14

High 36°   Low 32°   Rain 83%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 29 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the European model (ECMWF) stands apart, rain 100% against a group average of 83%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service39°27°81%
US model (GFS)36°33°71%
European model (ECMWF)36°34°100%
German model (ICON)36°32°88%
Canadian model (GEM)35°32°77%
The average36°32°83%

Sunday, November 15

High 38°   Low 30°   Rain 56%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 44 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 28% against a group average of 56%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service40°26°72%
US model (GFS)36°29°62%
European model (ECMWF)37°33°60%
German model (ICON)38°34°60%
Canadian model (GEM)38°31°28%
The average38°30°56%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.