Minority Report

Manassas, VA — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Manassas city.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 65°   Low 45°   Rain 36%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 3°, rain spread 75 points, 3 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 80% against a group average of 36%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—42°5%
US model (GFS)64°44°26%
German model (ICON)64°45°80%
Canadian model (GEM)67°47°32%
The average65°45°36%

Friday, November 13

High 49°   Low 35°   Rain 15%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 27 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 15%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°33°9%
US model (GFS)47°34°2%
German model (ICON)49°36°20%
Canadian model (GEM)50°36°29%
The average49°35°15%

Saturday, November 14

High 50°   Low 33°   Rain 5%

They agree — trust it (highs spread 2°, rain spread 12 points, 4 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service51°35°2%
US model (GFS)49°30°2%
German model (ICON)50°34°3%
Canadian model (GEM)49°33°14%
The average50°33°5%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 37°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service54°33°0%
US model (GFS)50°38°0%
German model (ICON)53°40°0%
Canadian model (GEM)51°38°0%
The average52°37°0%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.