Minority Report

Manhattan, KS — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Riley County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 52°   Low 31°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 0 points, 4 sources)

Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—28°0%
US model (GFS)50°33°0%
European model (ECMWF)51°36°0%
German model (ICON)52°30°0%
Canadian model (GEM)53°30°0%
The average52°31°0%

Friday, November 13

High 46°   Low 27°   Rain 0%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 0 points, 5 sources)

Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service48°26°0%
US model (GFS)44°30°0%
European model (ECMWF)46°31°0%
German model (ICON)47°22°0%
Canadian model (GEM)48°23°0%
The average46°27°0%

Saturday, November 14

High 49°   Low 27°   Rain 1%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 3 points, 5 sources)

Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service49°35°3%
US model (GFS)48°29°0%
European model (ECMWF)47°30°0%
German model (ICON)51°27°0%
Canadian model (GEM)50°16°0%
The average49°27°1%

Sunday, November 15

High 52°   Low 31°   Rain 9%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 4°, rain spread 24 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Sunday, November 15: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 24% against a group average of 9%.
Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service50°32°9%
US model (GFS)54°38°7%
European model (ECMWF)52°31°0%
German model (ICON)54°31°5%
Canadian model (GEM)51°24°24%
The average52°31°9%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.