Manhattan, NY — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of New York County.
Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.
← All cities and the scoreboard
High 59° Low 48° Rain 96%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 2°, rain spread 16 points, 4 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | — | 45° | 84% |
| US model (GFS) | 59° | 48° | 97% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 58° | 50° | 100% |
| German model (ICON) | 60° | 49° | 100% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 60° | 50° | 100% |
| The average | 59° | 48° | 96% |
High 48° Low 37° Rain 96%
Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 5°, rain spread 10 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 45° | 39° | 96% |
| US model (GFS) | 48° | 37° | 90% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 50° | 35° | 98% |
| German model (ICON) | 49° | 38° | 98% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 50° | 36° | 100% |
| The average | 48° | 37° | 96% |
High 45° Low 36° Rain 13%
They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 38 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 46° | 40° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 44° | 33° | 4% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 45° | 34° | 5% |
| German model (ICON) | 46° | 38° | 38% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 44° | 36° | 19% |
| The average | 45° | 36° | 13% |
High 48° Low 38° Rain 0%
They agree — trust it (highs spread 3°, rain spread 2 points, 5 sources)
| Source | High | Low | Rain |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Weather Service | 49° | 39° | 0% |
| US model (GFS) | 46° | 40° | 0% |
| European model (ECMWF) | 47° | 37° | 2% |
| German model (ICON) | 49° | 40° | 0% |
| Canadian model (GEM) | 47° | 36° | 0% |
| The average | 48° | 38° | 0% |
Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.