Minority Report

Manistee, MI — every free forecast we can get, averaged to be a little more right. County seat of Manistee County.

Updated Friday, November 13, 2026. Recorded fresh this morning from five free sources, and graded later against what the weather actually did.

← All cities and the scoreboard

Thursday, November 12

High 46°   Low 36°   Rain 64%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 64 points, 4 sources)

Minority report — Thursday, November 12: the US model (GFS) stands apart, rain 29% against a group average of 64%.
Thursday, November 12 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service—33°74%
US model (GFS)45°36°29%
European model (ECMWF)46°37°89%
German model (ICON)46°36°33%
Canadian model (GEM)47°37°93%
The average46°36°64%

Friday, November 13

High 41°   Low 33°   Rain 64%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 2°, rain spread 82 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Friday, November 13: the German model (ICON) stands apart, rain 18% against a group average of 64%.
Friday, November 13 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service41°36°60%
US model (GFS)40°32°43%
European model (ECMWF)41°34°99%
German model (ICON)42°32°18%
Canadian model (GEM)41°34°100%
The average41°33°64%

Saturday, November 14

High 44°   Low 38°   Rain 46%

They disagree — a coin flip (highs spread 4°, rain spread 53 points, 5 sources)

Minority report — Saturday, November 14: the Canadian model (GEM) stands apart, rain 73% against a group average of 46%.
Saturday, November 14 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service45°33°66%
US model (GFS)43°38°37%
European model (ECMWF)42°38°33%
German model (ICON)46°40°20%
Canadian model (GEM)43°39°73%
The average44°38°46%

Sunday, November 15

High 45°   Low 37°   Rain 12%

Pretty close — fairly safe (highs spread 3°, rain spread 13 points, 5 sources)

Sunday, November 15 — every source
SourceHighLowRain
National Weather Service46°35°17%
US model (GFS)44°38°15%
European model (ECMWF)44°36°4%
German model (ICON)45°37°12%
Canadian model (GEM)43°39°14%
The average45°37°12%

Scoreboard — who has been most right (all recorded cities)

Scoring has started — every forecast is being recorded. The first grades land once the historical record publishes what actually happened (it runs a few days behind), and this board fills in from there.